Educational article with video
Uncertainty in Business: Revise the Plan Using Real Feedback
Mostafa Nezamparvar’s view of business assumptions, measuring advertising and sales results, changing demand, and the cycle of action, measurement and redesign.
Based on a talk by Mostafa Nezamparvar
Full article contents
Full lesson video
Do not treat planning assumptions as certain outcomes
In business planning, we may specify an amount of advertising, a number of visits or attendance at an exhibition, then assume a definite result. In this lesson, Mostafa Nezamparvar challenges precisely that conversion of assumption into certainty. A plan is necessary, but actual results must be measured.
“Uncertainty” in this video does not mean abandoning decisions and action. The educator proposes a structure in which an action is taken, its feedback examined and the working method improved or redesigned according to the result.
In explaining why uncertainty matters, the educator refers to changes in technology, social media and consumption behavior. The point is that the conditions on which a plan was based may not remain stable.
The article does not derive historical statistics on the speed of change or company success from this explanation; the discussion remains focused on reviewing a plan’s assumptions.
Do not equate visits with customers
Evaluation requires examining the actual outcome of the action. If it does not match expectations, revisit the initial assumption rather than treating the mere act of advertising or attending an exhibition as success.
Build an action, measurement and improvement cycle into your work
The session proposes a repeating cycle: do something, measure its output, examine weaknesses and improve or redesign the method.
Measurement does not stop after implementation is repeated.
Unlike a fixed plan, this approach does not treat the initial decision as the final one. Information from actual implementation should influence what happens next. If part of the method does not produce suitable results, changing it must remain possible.
The video does not teach the details of designing a measurement system; the educator refers that topic to later content. Accordingly, the article does not add tools, numerical thresholds or templates in his name that the source does not present.
The proposed cycle for dealing with uncertainty
Action
Carry out the chosen method or plan
Measurement
Examine actual output, not an assumed result
Improvement or redesign
Change the method based on feedback
Implement again
Measurement continues after changes
Total sales can conceal changes within the market
This distinction helps identify change. Total sales may still be acceptable while demand for one product or conditions in one region have changed. Looking only at the overall result leaves more detailed questions unasked.
In the food-product example, changing customer preferences may reduce demand for the existing product or increase interest in another option. A seller relying only on the product’s sales history may notice the change late.
The educator emphasizes examining products, regions and sales performance separately, so changes do not remain hidden within overall results.
At what level should sales be examined?
Product
Which products sell, and which have changed?
Region
How do performance and demand vary across markets?
Sales method
How do sales representatives’ behavior and results differ?
Do not let past success end the review process
Throughout the video, the educator stresses continuous review. Even a business that has achieved results must watch for signs of change and not assume demand will continue simply because of its history.
This approach aims to remain responsive to feedback and open to improvement. If output changes, examine what changed in the product, sales method or market. Accepting uncertainty in this sense connects decisions to observed results.
About this talk
This article is a thematic adaptation of Mostafa Nezamparvar’s educational video on this page, based on automatic Persian captions; it is not word-for-word. Spoken analogies have been removed while preserving the practical cycle. Unclear numerical examples, unverified statistics and promises of guaranteed results have not been republished.